DTN Midday Livestock Comments          05/16 11:42

   The Livestock Complex Keeps Trading Higher 

   No cash cattle trade has developed, but packer interest should improve 
throughout the afternoon.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   Even though the cash cattle market hasn't seen any trade develop, the cattle 
complex is rallying into Thursday's noon hour as the day's export report was 
helpful, and again boxed beef prices are higher. July corn is down 6 1/4 cents 
per bushel and July soybean meal is down $2.00. The Dow Jones Industrial 
Average is up 57.87 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that, beef net sales of 15,100 mt for 2024 
were up 23% from the previous week but down 11% from the prior 4-week average. 
The three largest buyers were Japan (6,600 mt), China (1,900 mt) and Taiwan 
(1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 21,100 mt for 21,100 mt for 2024 -- a marketing 
year low -- were down 14% from the previous week and 22% from the prior 4-week 
average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,900 mt), Mexico (4,500 mt) and 
South Korea (3,200 mt). 

LIVE CATTLE:

   With a modestly supportive export sales report and higher boxed beef prices, 
the live cattle complex is trading higher and pressuring the upper end of the 
market's current trading range. The spot August contract is currently trading 
above its 100-day moving average which is an incredibly bullish signal that 
traders are indeed interested in supporting the market. Depending on what the 
cash cattle market does this week -- traders could either close above that 
threshold or dip back below it depending on what feedlots get accomplished in 
the countryside. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but asking prices are 
noted in the South at $186 to $187 plus, and in the North at $300. No bids are 
currently being offered. June live cattle are up $1.12 at $179.42, August live 
cattle are up $1.20 at $177.72 and October live cattle are up $1.15 at $180.85. 

   Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.74 ($309.51) and select up $3.09 
($297.40) with a movement of 51 loads (20.09 loads of choice, 9.97 loads of 
select, 11.69 loads of trim and 9.07 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   The combination of lower corn prices amid rising beef demand has accelerated 
the feeder cattle market's momentum and is helping the market trade fully 
higher into Thursday's noon hour. May feeders are up $1.67 at $244.82, August 
feeders are up $2.10 at $257.97 and September feeders are up $1.97 at $258.92. 
The market's next resistance level is its 100-day moving average, which the 
complex won't likely come up against this afternoon but could on Friday if 
traders' support remains aggressive. If cash cattle prices trade higher, then 
traders may be emboldened to pressure that threshold.

LEAN HOGS:

   Even with the morning's disappointing export report, the lean hog complex 
seems unscathed as it continues to trend higher. June lean hogs are up $1.30 at 
$98.80, July lean hogs are up $1.15 at $102.02 and August lean hogs are up 
$1.02 at $101.05. The market may have assumed enough of a decline through 
Wednesday's end traders feel as though reacting to the export report news is 
unneeded. Midday fundamental support is just mixed with pork cutout values 
slightly lower and cash prices up modestly. 

   The projected lean hog index for 5/15/2024 is up $0.37 at $92.13 and the 
actual index for 5/14/2024 is up $0.47 at $91.76. Hog prices are higher on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.40 with a weighted average price of 
$89.36, ranging from $86.00 to $90.00 on 1,109 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $88.63. Pork cutouts total 165.14 loads with 142.99 loads of pork 
cuts and 22.15 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.76, $100.94.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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